GabrielDuquette comments on Rationality Quotes May 2012 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 May 2012 11:37PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 08 May 2012 02:24:04PM *  14 points [-]

The universe, I'd learned, was never, ever kidding.

Cheryl Strayed, Wild

Comment author: PhilosophyTutor 10 May 2012 03:37:32AM 0 points [-]

If you have a result with a p value of p<0.05, the universe could be kidding you up to 5% of the time. You can reduce the probability that the universe is kidding you with bigger samples, but you never get it to 0%.

Comment author: RobinZ 11 May 2012 04:10:49AM 0 points [-]

How would you rephrase that using Bayesian language, I wonder?

Comment author: PhilosophyTutor 11 May 2012 06:08:30AM 1 point [-]

It already is in Bayesian language, really, but to make it more explicit you could rephrase it as "Unless P(B|A) is 1, there's always some possibility that hypothesis A is true but you don't get to see observation B."