shminux comments on Rationality and Winning - Less Wrong

19 Post author: lukeprog 04 May 2012 06:31PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (83)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: bryjnar 04 May 2012 08:09:44PM 12 points [-]

Another thing that's pretty crucial here is that rationality is only aimed at expected winning.

Suppose we live on Lottery Planet, where nearly everyone has a miserable life, but you can buy a lottery ticket for a chance of $BIGNUM dollars. Nonetheless, the chances of winning the lottery are so small that the expected value of buying a ticket is negative. So the rational recommendation is to refrain from buying lottery tickets.

Nonetheless, the agents who would be "smiling down from their huge piles of utility" could only be the ones who "irrationally" bought lottery tickets. (Credit for this example goes to someone else, but I can't remember who...)

You shouldn't expect rationality to help you win absolutely. Some people will just get lucky. You should expect it to help you do better than average, however. The rationalist on lottery planet is certainly likely to be doing better than the average lottery-ticket buyer.

Comment author: shminux 04 May 2012 11:16:42PM -1 points [-]

So the rational recommendation is to refrain from buying lottery tickets.

The "rational recommendation" would be to figure out a way to decrease your effective ticket price (example: "Mom, next time, instead of buying me yet another pair of black socks I hate, just give me a few lottery tickets!").

Comment author: bryjnar 05 May 2012 02:49:30PM 3 points [-]

I feel like you're fighting the hypothetical here. The point of the example was to illustrate a particular feature of rationality; obviously it's going to break down if you allow yourself other options.