= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Alsadius comments on Rationality and Winning - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (83)
Another thing that's pretty crucial here is that rationality is only aimed at expected winning.
Suppose we live on Lottery Planet, where nearly everyone has a miserable life, but you can buy a lottery ticket for a chance of $BIGNUM dollars. Nonetheless, the chances of winning the lottery are so small that the expected value of buying a ticket is negative. So the rational recommendation is to refrain from buying lottery tickets.
Nonetheless, the agents who would be "smiling down from their huge piles of utility" could only be the ones who "irrationally" bought lottery tickets. (Credit for this example goes to someone else, but I can't remember who...)
You shouldn't expect rationality to help you win absolutely. Some people will just get lucky. You should expect it to help you do better than average, however. The rationalist on lottery planet is certainly likely to be doing better than the average lottery-ticket buyer.
True. I've seen a few comments from successful folks(the one that was most memorable was the founders of Home Depot) saying that you need to gamble to be successful. In that particular case, it basically involved calling his boss an idiot and completely rearranging the business model of hardware stores. Now obviously, they wouldn't have founded Home Depot without doing that, but I was thinking as I read this "For every one of you, there's probably a thousand folks who got fired and a hundred who ran the business into the ground". It's a good guide for being extraordinarily successful, but by definition that can't be done ordinarily.