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jsteinhardt comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong
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I'm not sure what you mean by
As Holden and Eliezer both explicitly state, SIAI itself rejects the "but there's still a chance" argument.
It all depends on how small that small chance is. Pascal mugging is typically done with probabilities that are exponentially small, e.g. 10^-10 or so.
But what about if Holden is going to not recommend SIAI for donations when there's a 1% or 0.1% chance of it making that big difference.