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ghf comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong
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Update: My full response to Holden is now here.
As Holden said, I generally think that Holden's objections for SI "are either correct (especially re: past organizational competence) or incorrect but not addressed by SI in clear argumentative writing (this includes the part on 'tool' AI)," and we are working hard to fix both categories of issues.
In this comment I would merely like to argue for one small point: that the Singularity Institute is undergoing comprehensive changes — changes which I believe to be improvements that will help us to achieve our mission more efficiently and effectively.
Holden wrote:
Louie Helm was hired as Director of Development in September 2011. I was hired as a Research Fellow that same month, and made Executive Director in November 2011. Below are some changes made since September. (Pardon the messy presentation: LW cannot correctly render tables in comments.)
SI before Sep. 2011: Very few peer-reviewed research publications.
SI today: More peer-reviewed publications coming in 2012 than in all past years combined. Additionally, I alone have a dozen papers in development, for which I am directing every step of research and writing, and will write the final draft, but am collaborating with remote researchers so as to put in only 5%-20% of the total hours required myself.
SI before Sep. 2011: No donor database / a very broken one.
SI today: A comprehensive donor database.
SI before Sep. 2011: Nearly all work performed directly by SI staff.
SI today: Most work outsourced to remote collaborators so that SI staff can focus on the things that only they can do.
SI before Sep. 2011: No strategic plan.
SI today: A strategic plan developed with input from all SI staff, and approved by the Board.
SI before Sep. 2011: Very little communication about what SI is doing.
SI today: Monthly progress reports, plus three Q&As with Luke about SI research and organizational development.
SI before Sep. 2011: No list of the research problems SI is working on.
SI today: A long, fully-referenced list of research problems SI is working on.
SI before Sep. 2011: Very little direct management of staff and projects.
SI today: Luke monitors all projects and staff work, and meets regularly with each staff member.
SI before Sep. 2011: Almost no detailed tracking of the expense of major SI projects (e.g. Summit, papers, etc.). The sole exception seems to be that Amy was tracking the costs of the 2011 Summit in NYC.
SI today: Detailed tracking of the expense of major SI projects for which this is possible (Luke has a folder in Google docs for these spreadsheets, and the summary spreadsheet is shared with the Board).
SI before Sep. 2011: No staff worklogs.
SI today: All staff members share their worklogs with Luke, Luke shares his worklog with all staff plus the Board.
SI before Sep. 2011: Best practices not followed for bookkeeping/accounting; accountant's recommendations ignored.
SI today: Meetings with consultants about bookkeeping/accounting; currently working with our accountant to implement best practices and find a good bookkeeper.
SI before Sep. 2011: Staff largely separated, many of them not well-connected to the others.
SI today: After a dozen or so staff dinners, staff much better connected, more of a team.
SI before Sep. 2011: Want to see the basics of AI Risk explained in plain language? Read The Sequences (more than a million words) or this academic book chapter by Yudkowsky.
SI today: Want to see the basics of AI Risk explained in plain language? Read Facing the Singularity (now in several languages, with more being added) or listen to the podcast version.
SI before Sep. 2011: Very few resources created to support others' research in AI risk.
SI today: IntelligenceExplosion.com, Friendly-AI.com, list of open problems in the field, with references, AI Risk Bibliography 2012, annotated list of journals that may publish papers on AI risk, a partial history of AI risk research, and a list of forthcoming and desired articles on AI risk.
SI before Sep. 2011: A hard-to-navigate website with much outdated content.
SI today: An entirely new website that is easier to navigate and has much new content (nearly complete; should launch in May or June).
SI before Sep. 2011: So little monitoring of funds that $118k was stolen in 2010 before SI noticed. (Note that we have won stipulated judgments to get much of this back, and have upcoming court dates to argue for stipulated judgments to get the rest back.)
SI today: Our bank accounts have been consolidated, with 3-4 people regularly checking over them.
SI before Sep. 2011: SI publications exported straight to PDF from Word or Google Docs, sometimes without even author names appearing.
SI today: All publications being converted into slick, useable LaTeX template (example), with all references checked and put into a central BibTeX file.
SI before Sep. 2011: No write-up of our major public technical breakthrough (TDT) using the mainstream format and vocabulary comprehensible to most researchers in the field (this is what we have at the moment).
SI today: Philosopher Rachael Briggs, whose papers on decision theory have been twice selected for the Philosopher's Annual, has been contracted to write an explanation of TDT and publish it in one of a select few leading philosophy journals.
SI before Sep. 2011: No explicit effort made toward efficient use of SEO or our (free) Google Adwords.
SI today: Highly optimized use of Google Adwords to direct traffic to our sites; currently working with SEO consultants to improve our SEO (of course, the new website will help).
(Just to be clear, I think this list shows not that "SI is looking really great!" but instead that "SI is rapidly improving and finally reaching a 'basic' level of organizational function.")
My hope is that the upcoming deluge of publications will answer this objection, but for the moment, I am unclear as to the justification for the level of resources being given to SIAI researchers.
This level of freedom is the dream of every researcher on the planet. Yet, it's unclear why these resources should be devoted to your projects. While I strongly believe that the current academic system is broken, you are asking for a level of support granted to top researchers prior to have made any original breakthroughs yourself.
If you can convince people to give you that money, wonderful. But until you have made at least some serious advancement to demonstrate your case, donating seems like an act of faith.
It's impressive that you all have found a way to hack the system and get paid to develop yourselves as researchers outside of the academic system and I will be delighted to see that development bear fruit over the coming years. But, at present, I don't see evidence that the work being done justifies or requires that support.
Because some people like my earlier papers and think I'm writing papers on the most important topic in the world?
Note that this isn't uncommon. SI is far from the only think tank with researchers who publish in academic journals. Researchers at private companies do the same.
First, let me say that, after re-reading, I think that my previous post came off as condescending/confrontational which was not my intent. I apologize.
Second, after thinking about this for a few minutes, I realized that some of the reason your papers seem so fluffy to me is that they argue what I consider to be obvious points. In my mind, of course we are likely "to develop human-level AI before 2100." Because of that, I may have tended to classify your work as outreach more than research.
But outreach is valuable. And, so that we can factor out the question of the independent contribution of your research, having people associated with SIAI with the publications/credibility to be treated as experts has gigantic benefits in terms of media multipliers (being the people who get called on for interviews, panels, etc). So, given that, I can see a strong argument for publication support being valuable to the overall organization goals regardless of any assessment of the value of the research.
My only point was that, in those situations, usually researchers are brought in with prior recognized achievements (or, unfortunately all too often, simply paper credentials). SIAI is bringing in people who are intelligent but unproven and giving them the resources reserved for top talent in academia or industry. As you've pointed out, one of the differences with SIAI is the lack of hoops to jump through.
Edit: I see you commented below that you view your own work as summarization of existing research and we agree on the value of that. Sorry that my slow typing speed left me behind the flow of the thread.
It's true at my company, at least. There are quite a few papers out there authored by the researchers at the company where I work. There are several good business reasons for a company to invest time into publishing a paper; positive PR is one of them.