Vladimir_Nesov comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong
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Probably (in practice; in theory it looks like a natural aspect of decision-making); this is too poorly understood to say what specifically is necessary. I expect that if we could safely run experiments, it'd be relatively easy to find a well-behaving setup (in the sense of not generating predictions that are self-fulfilling to any significant extent; generating good/useful predictions is another matter), but that strategy isn't helpful when a failed experiment destroys the world.