Alsadius comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong

256 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 11 May 2012 04:31AM

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Comment author: Alsadius 13 May 2012 03:48:30AM 1 point [-]

There's really no such thing as a "super bug". All organisms follow the same constraints of biology and epidemiology. If there was even some magical "super bug" it would infect everything of any remotely compatible species, not be constrained to one species, and small subset of cells in it.

The term does not imply magic, it merely implies nasty. Smallpox and Spanish flu were both superbugs in every meaningful sense, but they worked on DNA just like everything else. The question is not whether someone builds a flesh-eating nanite our immune system can't handle or whatever, it's just about whether an infectious disease comes along that's worse than our medical system can cope with. That is a much lower bar.

Comment author: taw 13 May 2012 05:12:09AM 1 point [-]

Smallpox wasn't that bad if you look at statistics, and spanish flu happened at a time when humans have been murdering each other at unprecedented rate and normal society was either suspended or collapsed altogether everywhere.

Usually the chance of getting infected is inversely correlated with severity of symptoms (by laws of epidemiology), and nastiness is inversely correlated with broad range (by laws of biology), so you have diseases that are really extreme by any one criterion, but they tend to be really weak by some other criterion.

And in any case we're getting amazingly better at this.

Comment author: Alsadius 15 May 2012 01:02:28AM 2 points [-]

Not that bad?

The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans per year during the closing years of the 18th century (including five reigning monarchs),[7] and was responsible for a third of all blindness.[3][8] Of all those infected, 20–60%—and over 80% of infected children—died from the disease.[9] Smallpox was responsible for an estimated 300–500 million deaths during the 20th century.[10][11][12] As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.[13]

I agree that there were aggravating factors, particularly in the Spanish flu case, and that tradeoffs between impact and spread generally form a brake. But nasty diseases do exist, and our medical science is sufficiently imperfect that the possibility of one slipping through even in the modern world is not to be ignored. Fortunately, it's a field we're already pouring some pretty stupendous sums of money into, so it's not a risk we're likely to be totally blindsided by, but it's one to keep in mind.

Comment author: taw 15 May 2012 08:33:08AM 1 point [-]

The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans per year during the closing years of the 18th century

So? 400,000 people a year is what % of total mortality?

As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.

In an important way diseases don't kill people, poverty, hunger, and lack of sanitation kills people. The deaths were almost all happening in the poorest, and the most abused parts of the world - India and Africa.

Comment author: Alsadius 15 May 2012 11:28:07PM 2 points [-]

So? 400,000 people a year is what % of total mortality?

World population in 1800 was about a billion, and we'll ballpark 1/5th of the population being in Europe and 1/40th of them dying per year(which is probably better life expectancy than the world had, but about right for Europe). That means about 5 million deaths per year, so 400k would be 8%. And it's not like smallpox was the only plague around, either.

In an important way diseases don't kill people, poverty, hunger, and lack of sanitation kills people. The deaths were almost all happening in the poorest, and the most abused parts of the world - India and Africa.

In an even more important way, diseases kill people. Yes, if smallpox came back today(or a non-vaccinatible equivalent) it'd kill a lot fewer people than it used to because of better quarantine, sanitation, and all that fun stuff. Same way AIDS is a minor problem here and a world-ender in sub-Saharan Africa. But it's not like we lack for infectious disease in the developed world.

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