thomblake comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong

256 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 11 May 2012 04:31AM

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Comment author: thomblake 14 May 2012 08:03:44PM 5 points [-]

As a minor note, observe that claims of extraordinary rationality do not necessarily contradict claims of irrationality. The sanity waterline is very low.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 14 May 2012 09:12:55PM 5 points [-]

Do you mean to imply in context here that the organizational management of SIAI at the time under discussion was above average for a nonprofit organization? Or are you just making a more general statement that a system can be irrational while demonstrating above average rationality? I certainly agree with the latter.

Comment author: ciphergoth 15 May 2012 06:30:46AM 9 points [-]

Are you comparing it to the average among nonprofits started, or nonprofits extant? I would guess that it was well below average for extant nonprofits, but about or slightly above average for started nonprofits. I'd guess that most nonprofits are started by people who don't know what they're doing and don't know what they don't know, and that SI probably did slightly better because the people who were being a bit stupid were at least very smart, which can help. However, I'd guess that most such nonprofits don't live long because they don't find a Peter Thiel to keep them alive.

Comment author: David_Gerard 16 May 2012 11:07:48AM 6 points [-]

Your assessment looks about right to me. I have considerable experience of averagely-incompetent nonprofits, and SIAI looks normal to me. I am strongly tempted to grab that "For Dummies" book and, if it's good, start sending copies to people ...

Comment author: TheOtherDave 15 May 2012 12:44:48PM 0 points [-]

In the context of thomblake's comment, I suppose nonprofits started is the proper reference class.

Comment author: thomblake 15 May 2012 01:51:19PM 0 points [-]

Or are you just making a more general statement that a system can be irrational while demonstrating above average rationality?

Yes, this.

On an arbitrary scale I just made up, below 100 degrees of rationality is "irrational", and 0 degrees of rationality is "ordinary". 50 is extraordinarily rational and yet irrational.