Alsadius comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong

256 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 11 May 2012 04:31AM

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Comment author: Alsadius 15 May 2012 01:02:28AM 2 points [-]

Not that bad?

The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans per year during the closing years of the 18th century (including five reigning monarchs),[7] and was responsible for a third of all blindness.[3][8] Of all those infected, 20–60%—and over 80% of infected children—died from the disease.[9] Smallpox was responsible for an estimated 300–500 million deaths during the 20th century.[10][11][12] As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.[13]

I agree that there were aggravating factors, particularly in the Spanish flu case, and that tradeoffs between impact and spread generally form a brake. But nasty diseases do exist, and our medical science is sufficiently imperfect that the possibility of one slipping through even in the modern world is not to be ignored. Fortunately, it's a field we're already pouring some pretty stupendous sums of money into, so it's not a risk we're likely to be totally blindsided by, but it's one to keep in mind.

Comment author: taw 15 May 2012 08:33:08AM 1 point [-]

The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans per year during the closing years of the 18th century

So? 400,000 people a year is what % of total mortality?

As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.

In an important way diseases don't kill people, poverty, hunger, and lack of sanitation kills people. The deaths were almost all happening in the poorest, and the most abused parts of the world - India and Africa.

Comment author: Alsadius 15 May 2012 11:28:07PM 2 points [-]

So? 400,000 people a year is what % of total mortality?

World population in 1800 was about a billion, and we'll ballpark 1/5th of the population being in Europe and 1/40th of them dying per year(which is probably better life expectancy than the world had, but about right for Europe). That means about 5 million deaths per year, so 400k would be 8%. And it's not like smallpox was the only plague around, either.

In an important way diseases don't kill people, poverty, hunger, and lack of sanitation kills people. The deaths were almost all happening in the poorest, and the most abused parts of the world - India and Africa.

In an even more important way, diseases kill people. Yes, if smallpox came back today(or a non-vaccinatible equivalent) it'd kill a lot fewer people than it used to because of better quarantine, sanitation, and all that fun stuff. Same way AIDS is a minor problem here and a world-ender in sub-Saharan Africa. But it's not like we lack for infectious disease in the developed world.

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