I am not the one who is making positive claims here.

You did in the original post I responded to.

All I'm saying is that what has happened before is likely to happen again.

Strictly speaking, that is a positive claim. It is not one I disagree with, for a proper translation of "likely" into probability, but it is also not what you said.

"It can't deduce how to create nanorobots" is a concrete, specific, positive claim about the (in)abilities of an AI. Don't misinterpret this as me expecting certainty - of course certainty doesn't exist, and doubly so for this kind of thing. What I am saying, though, is that a qualified sentence such as "X will likely happen" asserts a much weaker belief than an unqualified sentence like "X will happen." "It likely can't deduce how to create nanorobots" is a statement I think I agree with, although one must be careful not use it as if it were stronger than it is.

A positive claim is that an AI will have a magical-like power to somehow avoid this.

That is not a claim I made. "X will happen" implies a high confidence - saying this when you expect it is, say, 55% likely seems strange. Saying this when you expect it to be something less than 10% likely (as I do in this case) seems outright wrong. I still buckle my seatbelt, though, even though I get in a wreck well less than 10% of the time.

This is not to say I made no claims. The claim I made, implicitly, was that you made a statement about the (in)capabilities of an AI that seemed overconfident and which lacked justification. You have given some justification since (and I've adjusted my estimate down, although I still don't discount it entirely), in amongst your argument with straw-dlthomas.