Wei_Dai comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong

256 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 11 May 2012 04:31AM

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Comment author: gwern 18 May 2012 07:34:43AM 3 points [-]

To clarify it better: the Roko incident illustrates how seriously some members of LW take nonsense conjectured threats. The fact of censorship is quite irrelevant.

You can't have it both ways. If it's nonsense, then the importance is that someone took it seriously (like a donor), not anyone's reaction to that someone taking it seriously (like Eliezer). If it's not nonsense, then someone taking it seriously is not the issue, but someone's reaction to taking it seriously (the censorship). Make up your mind.

The HS dropping out and lack of accomplishments are a piece of evidence, and a rational Bayesian agent is better off knowing about such evidence.

I don't believe at any point in my comment did I claim the dropping out of school represented precisely 0 Bayesian evidence...