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thomblake comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong
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Yes, that's possible. It's still possible that you could get a lot done with strategy #2 without being able to make that prediction.
I agree that if 2 systems have the same inputs and outputs, their internals don't matter much here.
So.. when we posit in this discussion a system that lacks a theory of mind in a sense that matters, are we positing a system that cannot make predictions like this one? I assume so, given what you just said, but I want to confirm.
Yes, I'd say so. It isn't helpful here to say that a system lacks a theory of mind if it has a mechanism that allows it to make predictions about reported beliefs, intentions, etc.
Cool! This was precisely my concern. It sounded an awful lot like y'all were talking about a system that could make such predictions but somehow lacked a theory of mind. Thanks for clarifying.