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Polymeron comments on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) - Less Wrong
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My point was that the AI is likely to start performing social experiments well before it is capable of even that conversation you depicted. It wouldn't know how much it doesn't know about humans.
(nods) Likely.
And I agree that humans might be able to detect attempts at deception in a system at that stage of its development. I'm not vastly confident of it, though.
I have likewise adjusted down my confidence that this would be as easy or as inevitable as I previously anticipated. Thus I would no longer say I am "vastly confident" in it, either.
Still good to have this buffer between making an AI and total global catastrophe, though!
Sure... a process with an N% chance of global catastrophic failure is definitely better than a process with N+delta% chance.