I expect the process of rigorously formalizing strong intuitions in a somewhat adversarial setting--or "improving the presentation of the argument"--to present strong evidence on the severity of the problems Holden pointed out.
And if the intuitions were not a product of some valid but subconscious inference (which I wouldn't expect them to be), how will that process of 'rigorously formalizing' be different from rationalization? Note that you have to be VERY rigorous - mathematical proof-grade - to be unable to rationalize a false statement. I think inference at that level of rigour is of comparable difficulty to creation of the superhuman AGI in the first place.
I was wondering - what fraction of people here agree with Holden's advice regarding donations, and his arguments? What fraction assumes there is a good chance he is essentially correct? What fraction finds it necessary to determine whenever Holden is essentially correct in his assessment, before working on counter argumentation, acknowledging that such investigation should be able to result in dissolution or suspension of SI?
It would seem to me, from the response, that the chosen course of action is to try to improve the presentation of the argument, rather than to try to verify truth values of the assertions (with the non-negligible likelihood of assertions being found false instead). This strikes me as very odd stance.
Ultimately: why SI seems certain that it has badly presented some valid reasoning, rather than tried to present some invalid reasoning?
edit: I am interested in knowing why people agree/disagree with Holden, and what likehood they give to him being essentially correct, rather than a number or a ratio (that would be subject to selection bias).