I generally expect that broad-focus organizations with a lot of resources and multiple constituencies will end up spending a LOT of their resources on internal status struggles. Given what little I've seen about SI's skill and expertise at managing the internal politics of such an arrangement, I would expect the current staff to be promptly displaced by more skillful politicians if they went down this road, and the projects of interest to that staff to end up with even fewer resources than they have now.
Given what little I've seen about SI's skill and expertise at managing the internal politics of such an arrangement, I would expect the current staff to be promptly displaced by more skillful politicians if they went down this road, and the projects of interest to that staff to end up with even fewer resources than they have now.
I think this has already happened to some extent. Reflective people who have good epistemic habits but who don't get shit done have had their influence over SingInst policy taken away while lots of influence has been granted to ...
I was wondering - what fraction of people here agree with Holden's advice regarding donations, and his arguments? What fraction assumes there is a good chance he is essentially correct? What fraction finds it necessary to determine whenever Holden is essentially correct in his assessment, before working on counter argumentation, acknowledging that such investigation should be able to result in dissolution or suspension of SI?
It would seem to me, from the response, that the chosen course of action is to try to improve the presentation of the argument, rather than to try to verify truth values of the assertions (with the non-negligible likelihood of assertions being found false instead). This strikes me as very odd stance.
Ultimately: why SI seems certain that it has badly presented some valid reasoning, rather than tried to present some invalid reasoning?
edit: I am interested in knowing why people agree/disagree with Holden, and what likehood they give to him being essentially correct, rather than a number or a ratio (that would be subject to selection bias).