Well, I would need to read through the proof, so it wouldn't literally be instantaneous, but it'd be rather strong point.
I would recommend considering the possibility that making such proofs, or at least trying to, would change someone's opinion, even if you think that it wouldn't change mine (yea i guess from your point of view if some vague handwaving doesn't change my opinion, then nothing else will)
Ultimately, if in a technical subject you got strong opinions and intuitions and stuff, and you aren't generating some proofs (at least the proofs that you think may help attack final problem), then my opinion on your opinion is going to be well below my opinion of that paper by Bogdanov brothers.
What AIXI maximizes is the sum of some reward ( r ) over all the steps ( k ) of a Turing machine. On page 8, Hutter defines the reward as a function of the input string "x" at step k. So x depends on the step: it's x(k). And r depends on x: it's r(x(k)).
Consider offering AIXI this choice. What makes people refuse to hop in a simulator? Well, because it wouldn't be real. The customer values reality, as they perceive it according to previous inputs ( all the previous x(<k) ), and some internal programming we get born with. But AIXI does n...
I was wondering - what fraction of people here agree with Holden's advice regarding donations, and his arguments? What fraction assumes there is a good chance he is essentially correct? What fraction finds it necessary to determine whenever Holden is essentially correct in his assessment, before working on counter argumentation, acknowledging that such investigation should be able to result in dissolution or suspension of SI?
It would seem to me, from the response, that the chosen course of action is to try to improve the presentation of the argument, rather than to try to verify truth values of the assertions (with the non-negligible likelihood of assertions being found false instead). This strikes me as very odd stance.
Ultimately: why SI seems certain that it has badly presented some valid reasoning, rather than tried to present some invalid reasoning?
edit: I am interested in knowing why people agree/disagree with Holden, and what likehood they give to him being essentially correct, rather than a number or a ratio (that would be subject to selection bias).