I found HK's analysis largely sound (based on what I could follow, anyway), but it didn't have much of an effect on my donation practices. The following outlines my reasoning for doing what I do.
I have no feasible way to evaluate SIAI's work firsthand. I couldn't do that even if their findings were publicly available, and it's my default policy to reject the idea of donating to anyone whose claims I can't understand. If donating were a purely technical question, and if it came down to nothing but my estimate of SIAI's chances of actually making groundbreaking research, I wouldn't bet on them to be the first to build an AGI, never mind a FAI. (Also, on a more cynical note, if SIAI were simply an elaborate con job instead of a genuine research effort, I honestly wouldn't expect to see much of a difference.)
However, I can accept the core arguments for fast AI and uFAI to such a degree that I think the issue needs addressing, whatever that answer turns out to be. I view the AI risk PR work SIAI does as their most important contribution to date. Even if they never publish anything again, starting today, and even if they'll never have a line of code to show for anything, I estimate their net result to be positive simply for raising awareness about what looks to me like a legitimate concern. Someone should be asking those questions, and so far I haven't seen anyone else do that. To that end, I still estimate donating to SIAI to be worthwhile. At least for the time being.
I was wondering - what fraction of people here agree with Holden's advice regarding donations, and his arguments? What fraction assumes there is a good chance he is essentially correct? What fraction finds it necessary to determine whenever Holden is essentially correct in his assessment, before working on counter argumentation, acknowledging that such investigation should be able to result in dissolution or suspension of SI?
It would seem to me, from the response, that the chosen course of action is to try to improve the presentation of the argument, rather than to try to verify truth values of the assertions (with the non-negligible likelihood of assertions being found false instead). This strikes me as very odd stance.
Ultimately: why SI seems certain that it has badly presented some valid reasoning, rather than tried to present some invalid reasoning?
edit: I am interested in knowing why people agree/disagree with Holden, and what likehood they give to him being essentially correct, rather than a number or a ratio (that would be subject to selection bias).