Broadly speaking, I agree with Holden, although possibly not his specific arguments. I'm not convinced that AI will appear in the manner SI postulates, and I have no real reason to believe that they will have an impact on existential probabilities. Similarly, I don't believe that donating to CND helped overt nuclear war.
Given that there are effective charities available which can make an immediate difference to people's lives, I would argue that concerned individuals should donate to those.
I was wondering - what fraction of people here agree with Holden's advice regarding donations, and his arguments? What fraction assumes there is a good chance he is essentially correct? What fraction finds it necessary to determine whenever Holden is essentially correct in his assessment, before working on counter argumentation, acknowledging that such investigation should be able to result in dissolution or suspension of SI?
It would seem to me, from the response, that the chosen course of action is to try to improve the presentation of the argument, rather than to try to verify truth values of the assertions (with the non-negligible likelihood of assertions being found false instead). This strikes me as very odd stance.
Ultimately: why SI seems certain that it has badly presented some valid reasoning, rather than tried to present some invalid reasoning?
edit: I am interested in knowing why people agree/disagree with Holden, and what likehood they give to him being essentially correct, rather than a number or a ratio (that would be subject to selection bias).