Well, I spent many years of my life studying technical topics, and have certain technical accomplishments, so it is generally a bad strategy for me to assume superior knowledge for anyone who 'thought longer' about a subject; especially if it may be the case that it is not very hard to see that nothing conclusive could be concluded about the topic at the time, or the tool (mathematics) are not yet where they should be.
Furthermore, if I am to look at your list, those whom I disagree the most with (Eliezer, Lukeprog) appear to have least training in the subject matter (and jumped onto a very difficult subject without doing any notable training with good feedback). Lukeprog in particular has been doing theology till age of 22 and inevitably picked up a plenty of bad habits of thought; if I were him I would stay clear of things that can trigger old conditioned theist instincts, leaving those perhaps to people who never had such instincts conditioned into them in the first place. (I originally thought Luke was making BS but it seems to me now he is only still acting as a vehicle for the religious BS and could improve over the time)
I was wondering - what fraction of people here agree with Holden's advice regarding donations, and his arguments? What fraction assumes there is a good chance he is essentially correct? What fraction finds it necessary to determine whenever Holden is essentially correct in his assessment, before working on counter argumentation, acknowledging that such investigation should be able to result in dissolution or suspension of SI?
It would seem to me, from the response, that the chosen course of action is to try to improve the presentation of the argument, rather than to try to verify truth values of the assertions (with the non-negligible likelihood of assertions being found false instead). This strikes me as very odd stance.
Ultimately: why SI seems certain that it has badly presented some valid reasoning, rather than tried to present some invalid reasoning?
edit: I am interested in knowing why people agree/disagree with Holden, and what likehood they give to him being essentially correct, rather than a number or a ratio (that would be subject to selection bias).