ChrisHallquist comments on How many people here agree with Holden? [Actually, who agrees with Holden?] - Less Wrong
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Comments (105)
Prior to reading Holden's article, I my last charitable donation had been to an organization working on fighting malaria recommended by Give Well, and I was tentatively planning on following Give Well's recommendations for future charitable giving. In that sense, I already agreed with Holden, though was semi-agnostic on what was actually the best use of my money.
It seemed to me that the payoff from donating to the Singularity Institute was highly uncertain, whereas the payoff from donating to an organization that can get results in the near-future is much clearer.
Furthermore, I suspect whatever the Singularity Institute does now is likely to have little impact, relative to the impact of future work on AI safety that will happen once powerful AI is much nearer.
Objections 1 and 2 seemed to me very plausible, though I haven't gotten to read much of the discussion of them that's happened here, so I have fairly low confidence in that assessment.
Good chance? Oh definitely.
I'm not "SI," nor am I certain that the SI has merely presented valid reasoning badly. However, trying to articulate the arguments more clearly seems to me a worthwhile endeavor. Explaining ideas clearly is really, really, hard work, so it seems to me there's a significant (though hardly certain) chance that the SI has just done a bad job of explaining it's ideas.