Grognor comments on I Stand by the Sequences - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Grognor 15 May 2012 10:21AM

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Comment author: Grognor 16 May 2012 02:00:44PM *  1 point [-]

The error in your comment is that the sequences were all created by a few reliable processes, so it's as much of a conjunction fallacy as "My entire leg will function." Note that this also means that if one of the articles in the Sequences is wrong, it doesn't even mean Eliezer has made a grievous mistake. I have Nick Tarleton to thank for this insight, but I can't find where he originally said it.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 17 May 2012 05:48:09PM *  2 points [-]

The error in your comment is that the sequences were all created by a few reliable processes, so it's as much of a conjunction fallacy as "My entire leg will function."

Even professional runners will occasionally trip. Even Terry Tao occasionally makes a math error.

The point isn't that even highly reliable processes are likely to output some bad ideas over the long term.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 16 May 2012 07:44:26PM 0 points [-]

I think it's a Kaasism.