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saturn comments on Escaping Your Past - Less Wrong
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If project A is what you've always done in the past, even when having the knowledge that project B is superior, you can induce that you will probably continue with project A in the future.
You can also induce from what incentives you seem to respond to how to increase the probability that you will do B. For instance, if telling your friends that you plan to do a project has a high correlation with your doing that project, then you can increase your probability that you will do B by telling your friends that you plan to do B.
Probably, but shouldn't? If project B is superior, is that not the superior choice?
I think I understand the point you are making, I just want to be clear that there is a distinction between what is supposed to happen and what is likely to happen.
Yes.
To put it another way, the prognosis of recovering irrationalists is, so far, not good.
As I read it, this was the main point of the original post. Most of us (I suspect) still get rather different answers when we honestly ask "what action should I take" and "what action would I take".