NancyLebovitz comments on Value of Information: 8 examples - Less Wrong

48 Post author: gwern 18 May 2012 11:45PM

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Comment author: gwern 19 May 2012 01:35:02AM 3 points [-]

Maybe, but my understanding is that that value is already being screened off: the something must be positive expected value in the first place, or you wouldn't be using it at all in the first place.

(But I could be wrong, and I've already pinged Vaniver with a request to look things over since that's the sort of basic conceptual confusion I couldn't get myself out of.)

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 19 May 2012 03:43:20AM 0 points [-]

It's certainly true that you wouldn't be exploring things that didn't have positive expected value, but wouldn't the size of the expected value matter?

Comment author: gwern 19 May 2012 04:08:15AM 0 points [-]

I don't think it matters unless your investments are limited. If you have presented with X positive expected value investments, and you have enough funds for X+1 investments, what do you do? Invest in all X and reap the maximum possible return. (If you are limited to only 2 investments, then you will be very interested in which 2 investments of the X investments have the greatest sized expected value.)

This is pretty much the case with supplements: I don't lack capital to invest in them (look at how cheap some of the examples are, like lithium or melatonin), I lack good candidates for investment!