It was not intended as a prediction about his own research efforts over the next four years, as far as I know.

Yet it was, whether it was meant to or not. Surely he would be the first one to apply this marvelous approach?

Especially since his focus over that time has been on community-building rather than direct FAI research.

This is a rationalization, and you know it. He stated several times that he neglected SI to concentrate on research.

However, leaving the FAI research alone, I am rooting for your success. I certainly agree that a collaboration of like-minded people has a much better chance of success than any of them on their own, Bayes or no Bayes.

That is, I would like to see a subcommunity of LW devoted to researching mathematical and scientific problems independently of the current formal academic structure.

Well, being both outside the academia and not a complete novice in some fields of physics, I would love to get engaged in something like that, while learning the Bayesian way along the way. Whether there are others here in a similar position, I am not sure.