taw comments on Review: Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids - Less Wrong

17 Post author: jsalvatier 29 May 2012 06:00PM

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Comment author: taw 30 May 2012 03:32:12AM 5 points [-]

The way I see it all heredity studies (adoption, twins etc.) are pretty much universally worthless due to ridiculously wrong methodology (see this for details).

It is trivially observable that populations change drastically in every conceivable way without any genetic change, including along every single behavioral axis claimed to be "highly hereditary" (and the same even applies to many physical features like height, but not others like skin or eye color). Heredity studies are entirely incompatible with this macro reality, regardless of their (universally awful) methodology.

The best argument for Caplan's thesis is that even if we accept that environmental effects totally overwhelm genetic effects (which we should), there's still very little evidence that parental effort within range of typical first world middle class parenting make a big difference.

Comment author: jsalvatier 30 May 2012 03:44:09AM 0 points [-]

Heredity studies are entirely incompatible with this macro reality, regardless of their (universally awful) methodology.

Do you just mean that if a feature is close to 100% heritable, then there shouldn't be big differences in that feature? Or do you have something else in mind?

Comment author: taw comment score below threshold [+] (15 children)

Comment author: Vladimir_M 31 May 2012 12:32:52AM * 6 points [-]

The very concept of "X% heritable" relies on awful statistical shenanigans, and is best forgotten.

I recommend Neven Sesardic's book Making Sense of Heritability for a good treatment of this issue by an analytic philosopher. Sesardic shows pretty convincingly, in my opinion at least, that the intellectual shenanigans that have so badly confused and poisoned the debates about these issues have been mainly committed by anti-hereditarians. The book is short and very well written, although unfortunately it's a small academic edition that's likely to be quite expensive unless you're lucky to find a cheap used copy or have access to a university library.

Regarding the specific points made by taw, some of them have already been answered in the discussion thread following this post.

Comment author: taw comment score below threshold [+] (13 children)

Comment author: Vladimir_M 31 May 2012 03:05:18PM 7 points [-]

Well, then I'm puzzled why you didn't reply to these misguided assertions.

In any case, the paper you cite may well be correct point-by-point, but on the whole, it's a lawyerly argument that tries to overwhelm and misguide the readers by amassing a pile of hand-picked one-way evidence that will dazzle them and make them lose sight of the overall balance of evidence. As I wrote in that earlier comment thread in response to similar points:

As for heritability studies, you are certainly right that there is a lot of shoddy work, and by necessity they make a whole lot of wildly simplifying assumptions. If there existed only a handful of such studies, one would be well advised not to take them very seriously. However, the amount of data that has been gathered in recent decades is just too overwhelming to dismiss, especially taking into account that often there have been considerable ideological incentives to support the opposite conclusions.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 31 May 2012 05:12:04PM * 1 point [-]

As for heritability studies, you are certainly right that there is a lot of shoddy work, and by necessity they make a whole lot of wildly simplifying assumptions. If there existed only a handful of such studies, one would be well advised not to take them very seriously. However, the amount of data that has been gathered in recent decades is just too overwhelming to dismiss,

Piling up shoddy evidence does not make good evidence. (And it still doesn't if you -- that's the impersonal "you", not you in particular -- call it "Bayesian evidence".)

especially taking into account that often there have been considerable ideological incentives to support the opposite conclusions.

There are considerable ideological incentives on both sides.

The Sesardic book you recommended is in my university library, but when I went to look at it, I found at least a shelf-foot of books on the subject, some (I could tell just from the authors' names) on one side, some on the other. So I didn't bother looking any further and left all the books there. I could read Sesardic saying what you say he says, but then I could read Kamin arguing the opposite, and in that situation, to form a view of my own with any real basis I'd have to research the subject enough to write a book of my own. I have other things to do. Such is the nature of controversies: they cannot be settled by saying "read this book".

One observation though, that I haven't seen made on either side. Failing to find strong genetic causes for something does not imply that it's the environment; failing to find strong environmental causes does not imply that it's the genes; failing to find either does not imply that it's the interaction of genes and environment. I believe I've seen (but no cites) all three wrong arguments being made from time to time. All that failing to find the causes implies is that we have failed to find the causes.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 02 June 2012 05:54:49AM * 6 points [-]

There are considerable ideological incentives on both sides.

I don't think it can be reasonably argued that ideological incentives and pressures have been equally strong in both directions.

[T]o form a view of my own with any real basis I'd have to research the subject enough to write a book of my own.

At one point, I spent quite a bit of time trying to make some sense of these controversies, and based on what I've found, I disagree with this. Even though my initial bias back then was strongly against hereditarianism, it quickly became apparent to me that the writings of prominent anti-hereditarians raise many more red flags of kinds that are readily apparent even to a reader without an in-depth knowledge of the subject.

Now, of course, we may disagree about this when it comes to this particular topic. But as a more general point, I think it's neither necessary nor useful to approach controversies with the attitude that one must suspend judgement unless one is an expert. Often there is strong evidence in favor of one or the other side that can be correctly evaluated even if one has only a casual familiarity with the subject.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 02 June 2012 07:55:05AM * 1 point [-]

it quickly became apparent to me that the writings of prominent anti-hereditarians raise many more red flags of kinds that are readily apparent even to a reader without an in-depth knowledge of the subject.

That is my general impression also. But the presence of bad arguments is a very indirect indication of where the truth of the matter itself lies, so weakly related to the matter that I judge it completely worthless. It may be interesting for other reasons, but does not bear on the primary matter and has a negative effect on the whole discussion. I have not seen a convincing reply to some of the technical matters that have been raised by the anti-hereditarians; the argument is too easily derailed into attacking the anti-hereditarians' politics.

ETA: Perhaps more important is arguments being derailed into focussing on the weak points only.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 May 2012 07:59:13PM 5 points [-]

Piling up shoddy evidence does not make good evidence.

Um... yes, often it does.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 31 May 2012 08:03:14PM 0 points [-]

For example, 100 people saying "Um... yes, often it does" would not sway me a jot.

Do you have an example?

Comment author: wedrifid 31 May 2012 08:08:26PM * 4 points [-]

Do you have an example?

1 study with too small a sample size to even make the findings significantly significant is shoddy evidence. 100 such studies is (probably) good evidence.

Second example:

For example, 100 people saying "Um... yes, often it does" would not sway me a jot.

It should (unless all 100 people are known to be fools.)

continue this thread »

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 01 June 2012 09:21:41AM 1 point [-]

The Sesardic book you recommended is in my university library, but when I went to look at it, I found at least a shelf-foot of books on the subject, some (I could tell just from the authors' names) on one side, some on the other.

I can imagine the titles giving clues to the slant of a book, but how do you make such deductions from the authors' names?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 01 June 2012 04:30:11PM * 3 points [-]

By already knowing who they are and their general views on the subject. Kamin will say environment, Pinker will say genes, Gould will say environment, and Sesardic, I have learned, will say genes. And if in doubt, the publisher's blurb will tell me all I need to know if I'm not going to do my own extensive research.

In fact, the situation is even worse: to have a real view of my own, not only would I have to acquire expertise sufficient to write my own book, I would have to achieve substantially greater expertise than all of the people whose conclusions I ended up disagreeing with, in order to have reasonable grounds to think that I was right and they were wrong.

Who has the time?

Comment author: taw 31 May 2012 10:57:08PM -1 points [-]

Well, then I'm puzzled why you didn't reply to these misguided assertions.

Sadly there are many blind spots here where groupthink rules, and people will just happily downvote anybody who has a different opinion. They are not worth replying to. I see the downvote brigade found this thread as well.

taw comments on Review: Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids - Less Wrong

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