Vladimir_M comments on Review: Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids - Less Wrong

17 Post author: jsalvatier 29 May 2012 06:00PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (257)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 31 May 2012 05:12:04PM *  1 point [-]

As for heritability studies, you are certainly right that there is a lot of shoddy work, and by necessity they make a whole lot of wildly simplifying assumptions. If there existed only a handful of such studies, one would be well advised not to take them very seriously. However, the amount of data that has been gathered in recent decades is just too overwhelming to dismiss,

Piling up shoddy evidence does not make good evidence. (And it still doesn't if you -- that's the impersonal "you", not you in particular -- call it "Bayesian evidence".)

especially taking into account that often there have been considerable ideological incentives to support the opposite conclusions.

There are considerable ideological incentives on both sides.

The Sesardic book you recommended is in my university library, but when I went to look at it, I found at least a shelf-foot of books on the subject, some (I could tell just from the authors' names) on one side, some on the other. So I didn't bother looking any further and left all the books there. I could read Sesardic saying what you say he says, but then I could read Kamin arguing the opposite, and in that situation, to form a view of my own with any real basis I'd have to research the subject enough to write a book of my own. I have other things to do. Such is the nature of controversies: they cannot be settled by saying "read this book".

One observation though, that I haven't seen made on either side. Failing to find strong genetic causes for something does not imply that it's the environment; failing to find strong environmental causes does not imply that it's the genes; failing to find either does not imply that it's the interaction of genes and environment. I believe I've seen (but no cites) all three wrong arguments being made from time to time. All that failing to find the causes implies is that we have failed to find the causes.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 02 June 2012 05:54:49AM *  6 points [-]

There are considerable ideological incentives on both sides.

I don't think it can be reasonably argued that ideological incentives and pressures have been equally strong in both directions.

[T]o form a view of my own with any real basis I'd have to research the subject enough to write a book of my own.

At one point, I spent quite a bit of time trying to make some sense of these controversies, and based on what I've found, I disagree with this. Even though my initial bias back then was strongly against hereditarianism, it quickly became apparent to me that the writings of prominent anti-hereditarians raise many more red flags of kinds that are readily apparent even to a reader without an in-depth knowledge of the subject.

Now, of course, we may disagree about this when it comes to this particular topic. But as a more general point, I think it's neither necessary nor useful to approach controversies with the attitude that one must suspend judgement unless one is an expert. Often there is strong evidence in favor of one or the other side that can be correctly evaluated even if one has only a casual familiarity with the subject.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 02 June 2012 07:55:05AM *  1 point [-]

it quickly became apparent to me that the writings of prominent anti-hereditarians raise many more red flags of kinds that are readily apparent even to a reader without an in-depth knowledge of the subject.

That is my general impression also. But the presence of bad arguments is a very indirect indication of where the truth of the matter itself lies, so weakly related to the matter that I judge it completely worthless. It may be interesting for other reasons, but does not bear on the primary matter and has a negative effect on the whole discussion. I have not seen a convincing reply to some of the technical matters that have been raised by the anti-hereditarians; the argument is too easily derailed into attacking the anti-hereditarians' politics.

ETA: Perhaps more important is arguments being derailed into focussing on the weak points only.