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Vladimir_Nesov comments on This Didn't Have To Happen - Less Wrong
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Do you believe in the "Then I would feel sorry for the good Lord. The theory is correct." situations?
Sure - if Einstein signed up for cryonics, I might even follow suit. But a lot of really smart people are signing up for 'heaven', and I'm not listening to them, either.
Missing the point I think. Einstein wasn't stating this as any sort of appeal to authority. He was expressing his confidence in his mathematical proofs.
Mathematical proofs are an appeal to authority. Their standards rest entirely on the ability of experts on Mathematics to understand them. If we had a canonical mechanical proof-checker or something, it might be a different story.
But they were Einstein's proofs. He was confident in the math that he understood. If he were trying to convince someone else, then yes he'd be using himself as an authority.
So, you concede that it's possible to know the outcome in advance without empirical observation of success.
Now, what makes Einstein a special person for this purpose? Can it be you that decides?
Sure, it could be me that decides. That's why I've decided. What's your point?
That was an allusion to this question, which you still haven't answered. If, in principle, you could indeed decide that successful revival is possible, based only on theoretical knowledge, before any successful revival was ever performed, then you should be able to explain what kind of indirect evidence it would take to persuade you that successful revival is sufficiently likely for you to decide to sign up for cryonics.