Relevant to thinking about Moldbug's argument that decline in the quality of governance is masked by advances in technology and Pinker's argument on violence fading.

Murder and Medicine The Lethality of Criminal Assault 1960-1999

Despite the proliferation of increasinglydanger ous weapons and the verylar ge increase in rates of serious criminal assault, since 1960, the lethalityof such assault in the United States has dropped dramatically. This paradox has barely been studied and needs to be examined using national time-series data. Starting from the basic view that homicides are aggravated assaults with the outcome of the victim’s death, we assembled evidence from national data sources to show that the principal explanation of the downward trend in lethalityinvolves parallel developments in medical technologyand related medical support services that have suppressed the homicide rate compared to what it would be had such progress not been made. We argue that research into the causes and deterrabilityof homicide would benefit from a “lethality perspective” that focuses on serious assaults, only a small proportion of which end in death.

A blogger commenting on the study, and summarizing the bottom line pretty well:

"2010 homicide rate approximately the same as 1960 rate, despite around 3x the amount of aggravated assault. If you look in the paper's discussion on motor vehicle fatalities, you will see almost exactly the same story. Nearly all of the improvement in recent years is the result of technology, not governance."