James_Miller comments on Rationality Quotes June 2012 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 02 June 2012 05:14PM

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Comment author: James_Miller 01 June 2012 04:34:51PM *  17 points [-]

“My other piece of advice, Copperfield,” said Mr. Micawber, “you know. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

Charles Dickens, David Copperfield (HT Cafe Hayek.)

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 02 June 2012 07:26:59PM 10 points [-]

A reasonable start, but quite insufficient for the long run. Sixpence savings on twenty pounds income is not going to insulate you from disaster, not even with nineteenth-century money.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 05 June 2012 11:17:29PM 2 points [-]

Sixpence savings on twenty pounds income is not going to insulate you from disaster, not even with nineteenth-century money.

A disaster is an abrupt fall in income or abrupt increase in expenditures, so it falls under the general claim.

Comment author: pnrjulius 09 June 2012 01:22:55AM -1 points [-]

In fact, it may not even outpace inflation, much less the opportunity cost of the interest-free rate.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 09 June 2012 02:21:07AM 2 points [-]

I would have thought that, having decided to invest X amount of money per unit time, what matters for beating inflation is the interest you can get on it, not the size of X. Sixpence will fail as savings because it's 0.021% of your annual income, not because of inflation; even if you assumed the value of money was perfectly stable, it would take you a long time to build up any sort of reserve at that speed.

Comment author: gwern 09 June 2012 01:32:44AM *  0 points [-]

Inflation in England in this period was, as far as I know, remarkably low and <1%, even experiencing periods of apparent deflation. (Whether it beat Roman Egypt Sixpence compounding might go a decent way. See also Gregory Clark, Farewell to Alms:

However, in preindustrial England, and indeed in many preindustrial economies, inflation rates were low by modern standards. Figure 8.7 shows the English inflation rate from 1200 to 2000 over successive forty-year intervals. Before 1914 inflation rates rarely exceeded 2 percent per year, even in the period known as the Price Revolution, when the influx of silver from the New World helped drive up prices. In a country such as England, which had a highly regarded currency in the preindustrial era, the crown did not avail itself of the inflation tax, despite the close restrictions Parliament placed on its other tax revenues. Only in the twentieth century did significant inflation appear in England. By the late twentieth century annual inflation averaged 4–8 percent per year. Thus there has been a decline, not an improvement, in the quality of monetary management in England since the Industrial Revolution.

...Thus in Roman Egypt wheat prices roughly doubled between the beginning of the first century AD and the middle of the third.^12^ But that reflects an inflation rate of less than 0.3 percent per year.