Much more interestingly, Solomonoff probability hints that one should try really to search for something that would predict beyond probability distributions. I.e. search for objective collapse of some kind.
We face logical uncertainty here. We do not know if there is a theory of objective collapse that more compactly describes our current universe then MWI or random collapse does. I am inclined to believe that the answer is "no". This issue seems very subtle, and differences on it do not seem clear enough to damn an entire organization.
because forming either belief would be wrong.
this is not really a Bayesian standard of evidence. Do you also believe that, in a Bayesian sense, it is wrong to believe those theories.
Series: How to Purchase AI Risk Reduction
Another method for purchasing AI risk reduction is to raise the safety-consciousness of researchers doing work related to AGI.
The Singularity Institute is conducting a study of scientists who decided to either (1) stop researching some topic after realizing it might be dangerous, or who (2) forked their career into advocacy, activism, ethics, etc. because they became concerned about the potential negative consequences of their work. From this historical inquiry we hope to learn some things about what causes scientists to become so concerned about the consequences of their work that they take action. Some of the examples we've found so far: Michael Michaud (resigned from SETI in part due to worries about the safety of trying to contact ET), Joseph Rotblat (resigned from the Manhattan Project before the end of the war due to concerns about the destructive impact of nuclear weapons), and Paul Berg (became part of a self-imposed moratorium on recombinant DNA back when it was still unknown how dangerous this new technology could be).
What else can be done?
Naturally, these efforts should be directed toward researchers who are both highly competent and whose work is very relevant to development toward AGI: researchers like Josh Tenenbaum, Shane Legg, and Henry Markram.