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pragmatist comments on Boltzmann Brains and Anthropic Reference Classes (Updated) - Less Wrong
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Depends on what odds you're talking about. If you're talking about the odds of a Boltzmann brain popping into existence at any particular instant, then yes, the probability is absurdly low. If you're talking about a Boltzmann brain existing at some point in the universe, then I don't think the odds are all that small. It's the latter probability that's relevant to the kinds of issues Page cares about.