It depends on technology.
I agree that technology is a key factor here, but it isn't clear that weapons are especially important--not in a context of institutional evolution where national defense is taken for granted and relied upon as part of a smoothly-functioning economy. Ability to coordinate on complex goals is probably more important: at present, large number of folks cannot easily coordinate to affect public policy except in relatively crude ways (such as through ideologically-driven organizations). Hence, our current institutions in the West are effectively a mixture of "oligarchy" and "democracy": large groups of folks can effectively ensure that policymaking does not make them too badly off, but special interest groups can get their way on lots of individual issues if they spend enough resources to promote their cause.
It remains to be seen how this could change in the future, especially when one considers that Internet-based open politics may be a possibility. My guess is that there is some scope for further shifts in the "democracy-like" direction, particularly if actions to "raise the sanity waterline" are successful. However, the inherent difficulty of cooperation will mean that 'oligarchical' tendencies will exist for the foreseeable future.
The situation can be influenced on too many levels. In a dictatorship, weapons win. In a liberal democracy in theory weapons should not be relevant, because they are only used against criminals and external enemies; the conflicts should be decided by votes. However in real-life democracies the people with power can sometimes use police and secret service to harm their opponents; they just can't do it too openly. Maybe espionage is even better that weapons; if you have access to plans of your opponents and if you know about their internal conflicts, you hav...
I often hear people speak of democracy as the next, or the final, inevitable stage of human social development. Its inevitability is usually justified not by describing power relations that result in democracy being a stable attractor, but in terms of morality - democracy is more "enlightened". I don't see any inevitability to it - China and the Soviet Union manage(d) to maintain large, technologically-advanced nations for a long time without it - but suppose, for the sake of argument, that democracy is the inevitable next stage of human progress.
The May 18 2012 issue of Science has an article on p. 844, "Ancestral hierarchy and conflict", by Christopher Boehm, which, among other things, describes the changes over time of equality among male hominids. If we add its timeline to recent human history, then here is the history of democracy over time in the evolutionary line leading to humans:
There are two points to observe in this data:
I do believe "progress" is a meaningful term. But there isn't some cosmic niceness built into the universe that makes everything improve monotonically along every dimension at once.