First, this belongs in Discussion.
Why? It reads rather like a Robin Hanson posting, and those seem generally regarded as superior to the run of posts appearing on the Main page here. (At least according to commenters on Hanson's blog.) It's more original and important than the average Main post. The differences I discern relative to the typical Main post is that it's concise (a plus), better written (a huge plus), and less scholarly (a small minus). By my lights, of course.
It seems a question of what you want to read here. I look for novel ideas rather than extensive scholarship. Do others really look to this blog for scholarship? And if others denigrate the posting as substandard, I have to wonder why so many have taken the time to comment.
I prefer it when posts are promoted to Main, not started there.
I often hear people speak of democracy as the next, or the final, inevitable stage of human social development. Its inevitability is usually justified not by describing power relations that result in democracy being a stable attractor, but in terms of morality - democracy is more "enlightened". I don't see any inevitability to it - China and the Soviet Union manage(d) to maintain large, technologically-advanced nations for a long time without it - but suppose, for the sake of argument, that democracy is the inevitable next stage of human progress.
The May 18 2012 issue of Science has an article on p. 844, "Ancestral hierarchy and conflict", by Christopher Boehm, which, among other things, describes the changes over time of equality among male hominids. If we add its timeline to recent human history, then here is the history of democracy over time in the evolutionary line leading to humans:
There are two points to observe in this data:
I do believe "progress" is a meaningful term. But there isn't some cosmic niceness built into the universe that makes everything improve monotonically along every dimension at once.