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STL comments on Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate? - Less Wrong
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Comments (46)
R(5, 5) is hard to solve exactly, but easy to estimate: 46 is correct to within 10%.
(Although perhaps only Feynman could produce such an estimate in ten seconds, without knowing the range beforehand.)
Hah! I was wondering if someone would notice that blunder of mine. Congratulations!
(Given sixty seconds, well... the easy upper bound on R(5,5) is 70, the easy upper bound on R(4,4) is 20, and R(4,4) is known to be 18, so I would have probably guessed around 60, which isn't in the 10% range no matter what the real value is. Possibly someone with a better intuition for these things would think of a more calibrated argument, though.)