The 4-millionth (4000000th) prime number. As soon as I typed it I wondered if the distribution of large prime numbers had been approximated. I found http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_number_theorem
It seems more than plausible that Feynman would have been familiar with that theorem and would have been able to get the 4000000th prime number from it, within 10%. If he would have, I would have been happy with my failure to stump him.
Without looking it up (or clicking that link): 54,000,000?
(Vaguely remembering that it's about n log n (maybe?), and attempting to approximate log in my head.)
(EDIT: I was almost within 20%... but even that approximation above isn't within 10%.)
I have a whimsical challenge for you: come up with problems with numerical solutions that are hard to estimate.
This, like surprisingly many things, originates from a Richard Feynman story:
So what would you ask Richard Feynman to solve? Think of this as the reverse of Fermi Problems.
Number theory may be a rich source of possibilities here; many functions there are wildly fluctuating, require prime factorization and depend upon the exact value of the number rather than it's order of magnitude. For example, I challenge you to compute the largest prime factor of 650238.
(My original example was: "For example, I challenge you to compute the greatest common denominator of 10643 and 15047 without a computer. This problem has the nice advantage of being trivial to make harder to compute - just throw in some extra primes." It has been pointed out that I forgot Euclid's algorithm and have managed to choose about the only number theoretic question that does have an efficient solution.)