Currently, does the radioactivity increases or decreases. Of the whole Earth, Solar system, Galaxy?
What do you say?
As for the Earth, I'd say light radionuclides such as carbon-14 are more or less in equilibrium (as many are created by cosmic rays as many decay), and so are heavy short-lived radionuclides such as radon (as many are created by uranium and thorium decaying as many decay themselves), whereas heavy long-lived radionuclides (uranium and thorium) decay with nothing replenishing them. So the total radioactivity is decreasing (at least on timescales long compared with the 2x11-year solar cycle but short compared with the Earth's age).
I have a whimsical challenge for you: come up with problems with numerical solutions that are hard to estimate.
This, like surprisingly many things, originates from a Richard Feynman story:
So what would you ask Richard Feynman to solve? Think of this as the reverse of Fermi Problems.
Number theory may be a rich source of possibilities here; many functions there are wildly fluctuating, require prime factorization and depend upon the exact value of the number rather than it's order of magnitude. For example, I challenge you to compute the largest prime factor of 650238.
(My original example was: "For example, I challenge you to compute the greatest common denominator of 10643 and 15047 without a computer. This problem has the nice advantage of being trivial to make harder to compute - just throw in some extra primes." It has been pointed out that I forgot Euclid's algorithm and have managed to choose about the only number theoretic question that does have an efficient solution.)