Without looking it up (or clicking that link): 54,000,000?
(Vaguely remembering that it's about n log n (maybe?), and attempting to approximate log in my head.)
(EDIT: I was almost within 20%... but even that approximation above isn't within 10%.)
n log n calculated correctly is 11% off, so it almost seems like a deliberate trick! I certainly did not know the answer when I set it and thought n log(n) was right, but then looked it up in wik and thought I was confusing it with Stirling's approximation for large factorials.
When I tried n log(n) in my head, I was off by a factor of 10. I realized after the fact is because I did it as log10(4e6) = 66 dB and then 66log(10) = log(4e6). But of course dB are 10log10() and I forgot to divide by 10 at the end.
So I'm guessing Feynman would have gotten wi...
I have a whimsical challenge for you: come up with problems with numerical solutions that are hard to estimate.
This, like surprisingly many things, originates from a Richard Feynman story:
So what would you ask Richard Feynman to solve? Think of this as the reverse of Fermi Problems.
Number theory may be a rich source of possibilities here; many functions there are wildly fluctuating, require prime factorization and depend upon the exact value of the number rather than it's order of magnitude. For example, I challenge you to compute the largest prime factor of 650238.
(My original example was: "For example, I challenge you to compute the greatest common denominator of 10643 and 15047 without a computer. This problem has the nice advantage of being trivial to make harder to compute - just throw in some extra primes." It has been pointed out that I forgot Euclid's algorithm and have managed to choose about the only number theoretic question that does have an efficient solution.)