CuSithBell comments on Debate between 80,000 hours and a socialist - Less Wrong

5 Post author: jkaufman 07 June 2012 01:30PM

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Comment author: CuSithBell 07 June 2012 05:50:05PM *  1 point [-]

Regarding your example, I think what Mills is saying is probably a fair point - or rather, it's probably a gesture towards a fair point, muddied by rhetorical constraints and perhaps misunderstanding of probability. It is very difficult to actually get good numbers to predict things outside of our past experience, and so probability as used by humans to decide policy is likely to have significant biases.