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Vladimir_M comments on Conspiracy Theories as Agency Fictions - Less Wrong
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Some significant counterexamples to your heuristic are the criminal organizations with old historical roots, such as the Camorra or the Cosa Nostra. Their operations have been deeply conspiratorial and at the same time immensely influential, at least at the level of local politics, with institutional continuity of roughly the same vintage as that ascribed to the Illuminati.
That's a really good point. But even then, no one has ever been in doubt about their continued existence, and they've never had control of whole continents or the like. But yes, the basic point is sound and does substantially undermine my statement.