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TheOtherDave comments on Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI' - Less Wrong
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That's for normal programs, where errors don't matter. If you look at ones where people carefully look over the code because lives are at stake (like NASA rockets), then you'll have a better estimate.
Probably still not accurate, because much more is at stake for AI than just a few lives, but it will be closer.
I suspect that unpacking "run a program for the first time" more precisely would be useful here; it's not clear to me that everyone involved in the conversation has the same referents for it.
This. I see that if you have one and only one chance to push the Big Red Button and you're not allowed to use any preliminary testing of components or boxing strategies (or you're confident that those will never work) and you don't get most of the experts to agree that it is safe, then 90% is more plausible. If you envision more of these extras to make it safer--which seems like the relevant thing to envision--90% seems too high to me.