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shokwave comments on Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI' - Less Wrong
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Yes, and this is why I asked in the first place. To be more exact, I'm confused as to why Eliezer does not post a step-by-step detailing how he reached the particular confidence he currently holds as opposed to say, expecting it to be quite obvious.
I believe people like Holden especially would appreciate this; he gives an over 90% confidence to an unfavorable outcome, but doesn't explicitly state the concrete steps he took to reach such a confidence.
Maybe Holden had a gut feeling and threw a number, if so, isn't it more beneficial for Eliezer to detail how he personally reached the confidence level he has for a FAI scenario occurring than to bash Holden for being unclear?
I don't believe I can answer these questions correctly (as I'm not Eliezer and these questions are very much specific to him); I was already reaching a fair bit with my previous post.
I'm happy you asked, I did need to make my argument more specific.