Will_Newsome comments on [Link] Can We Reverse The Stanford Prison Experiment? - Less Wrong
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You know, I would have assumed that they would have done experiments that would reveal the direction of correlation (in the obvious way, i.e., divide the subjects into groups and give each group feedback with varying amounts of positiveness then measure their performance).
But on actually checking that doesn't seem to have been the case at all. Their claims are primarily based on "a mathematical model of consciousness rooted in Boolean algebra", which instantly triggers the "you're doing it wrong" light in my head. (Read the paper yourself before judging, though.)
The linked paper also discusses several experiments, all of which took the form of checking for correlation between positivity and performance during and after the fact, rather than controlling one of those variables.
So you do appear to be correct in your criticism. I'm slightly scared for the state of psychology.
And given Luke_A_Somers' and Eliezer's reactions, I'm more than slightly scared for the state of LessWrong. But maybe I missed something.
I think that Eliezer's reaction is more along the lines of "changing your behaviour when your beliefs change because of new evidence is a good thing!" rather than "this is definitely strong evidence of the given conclusion!"
If you believe that updating on new evidence to be virtuous, it's easy to fall into the trap of overdoing it without checking whether your new evidence is any good.
Not to mention the state of SIAI.
Eliezer seriously needs a second LW account, so that he can say "Yay!" without increasing existential risk.
Upon which I feel obligated to point out that the fact that he used his main account to say 'Yay' is only weak evidence against him already having a second account.
Whee, I'm scary.
More seriously, when am I allowed to update?
Just because something changed at the same time as you did something to change it isn't proof, but it is evidence.