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wedrifid comments on How confident is your atheism? - Less Wrong
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My atheism toward Christian God (or any other) is very like my skepticism toward the Little Red Riding Hood adventure.
The same thing.
10^-50.
"Lots of people believe it" is evidence for it being true, just weak evidence.
Or, it is really rather strong evidence but there are all sorts of other evidence (including other people's beliefs) that overwhelm it.
Or, "lots of people believe X" is (when that's all you've got) strong evidence, but it can be broken down into sub-possibilities depending on how they come to believe X, and when you look at that in the case of (say) Christianity it turns out not to be very good evidence after all. (For instance, because most people who believe it turn out to believe it mostly because other people induced them to believe it when they were too young to think it through properly.)
(I think the contrary evidence would be plenty strong enough even if "lots of people believe it" were good evidence in this case, but it happens not to be.)