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Unknowns comments on How confident is your atheism? - Less Wrong
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I am thiiiiiiiiis confident!
(Holds arms wide, then accepts any well-specified bet as if the actual probability of Christianity were zero, i.e., with betting prices corresponding to the probability of the specified evidence being observed, given the fixed assumption that Christianity is false.)
This calls into question your claim that you won't accept bets that would call into question your ability to pay if you lose.
What do think is the probability (given the fixed assumption that Christianity is false) that sometime before 2045 you will have the psychological experience of a vision of Christ claiming to be risen from the dead?
Preeeeeeeeeeeetty small, and I nonetheless won't accept any bets that I couldn't pay off if I lost, because that's deontologically dishonorable.