gwern comments on New Singularity.org - Less Wrong

14 Post author: lukeprog 18 June 2012 02:29PM

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Comment author: gwern 03 July 2012 12:52:12AM 2 points [-]

Eliezer frequently makes predictions and even bets.

Frequently? The http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry lists just 3 bets by Eliezer (full disclaimer: 1 involving me), which even dating just from 2008 (the first listed one) represents less than 1 a year.

(If we want to bring in the AI box experiments as involving money and so being bets, it's still less than 1 a year since that pushes the interval back to the early 2000s while only adding in like 4 bets.)

Comment author: wedrifid 03 July 2012 08:35:51AM -1 points [-]

Frequently?

Translation from human: "I can think of multiple instances without trying hard."

Comment author: gwern 03 July 2012 02:53:17PM 1 point [-]

Terrorists frequently attack us.