gwern comments on New Singularity.org - Less Wrong

14 Post author: lukeprog 18 June 2012 02:29PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 02 July 2012 09:39:46AM 0 points [-]

It is somewhat puzzling to me that my PredictionBook evangelizing is well received here

This particular shame based instance of evangelism isn't well received.

Frankly, it is a scandal to Less Wrong that its high-karma members don't bother to publicly record their own predictions and yet continue to expect others to believe in the efficacy of the techniques taught in its core texts like The Sequences.

Eliezer frequently makes predictions and even bets. Luke makes predictions from time to time as well. Not sure about Yvain. Your complaint seems to be that they don't happen to personally use your preferred website.

As far as I'm concerned you would have struggled to have come up with a more powerful way to persuade us to not use prediction book.

Comment author: gwern 03 July 2012 12:52:12AM 2 points [-]

Eliezer frequently makes predictions and even bets.

Frequently? The http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry lists just 3 bets by Eliezer (full disclaimer: 1 involving me), which even dating just from 2008 (the first listed one) represents less than 1 a year.

(If we want to bring in the AI box experiments as involving money and so being bets, it's still less than 1 a year since that pushes the interval back to the early 2000s while only adding in like 4 bets.)

Comment author: wedrifid 03 July 2012 08:35:51AM -1 points [-]

Frequently?

Translation from human: "I can think of multiple instances without trying hard."

Comment author: gwern 03 July 2012 02:53:17PM 1 point [-]

Terrorists frequently attack us.