gwern comments on New Singularity.org - Less Wrong
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Comments (100)
This particular shame based instance of evangelism isn't well received.
Eliezer frequently makes predictions and even bets. Luke makes predictions from time to time as well. Not sure about Yvain. Your complaint seems to be that they don't happen to personally use your preferred website.
As far as I'm concerned you would have struggled to have come up with a more powerful way to persuade us to not use prediction book.
Frequently? The http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry lists just 3 bets by Eliezer (full disclaimer: 1 involving me), which even dating just from 2008 (the first listed one) represents less than 1 a year.
(If we want to bring in the AI box experiments as involving money and so being bets, it's still less than 1 a year since that pushes the interval back to the early 2000s while only adding in like 4 bets.)
Translation from human: "I can think of multiple instances without trying hard."
Terrorists frequently attack us.