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betterthanwell comments on Less Wrong used to like Bitcoin before it was cool. Time for a revisit? - Less Wrong

16 Post author: betterthanwell 20 June 2012 01:40PM

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Comment author: betterthanwell 21 June 2012 08:04:48AM *  6 points [-]

Last year, MBlume suggested:

Someone should really write a prediction market using bitcoins -- it would be simpler for US-based users to participate.

This now exists at BetsOfBitcoin. I signed up one exactly one month ago.

So far, I've won 13 out of 13 bets. Mostly small bets and low yields, but winning is fun.

Comment author: wedrifid 21 June 2012 08:36:46AM 1 point [-]

This now exists at BetsOfBitcoin. I signed up one exactly one month ago.

I warn people against this site. Their adjudication of bets is highly dubious and their customer service just screams "sham".

I no longer bet at the site.

Comment author: betterthanwell 21 June 2012 09:04:22AM *  5 points [-]

Their adjudication of bets is highly dubious and their customer service just screams "sham".

Could you please explicate your complaint? I've had no disputes so far.
I found less than a handful of complaints in the announcement thread.

Bets (are supposed to) get rejected if the outcome is not easily decidable.

Comment author: Meni_Rosenfeld 09 August 2012 08:50:45PM *  1 point [-]

Except it's not really a prediction market. You could know the exact probability of an event happening, which is different from the market's opinion, and still not be able to guarantee profit (on average).

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