denisbider comments on Minimum viable workout routine - Less Wrong
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3.) It is painfully and obviously wrong. We don't burn food, our metabolic processes are vastly different than the measuring techniques used in the lab.
But that doesn't mean that it can't also be right.
I put together a spreadsheet because I thought that calories were clearly stupid; I went around online and found formulas for calculating my caloric requirements. I put in my initial weight, and created two columns; one for my measured weight, and one for my predicted weight. And then I tracked everything I ate, over a three month period, as well as my body weight, and (using an electronic scale), my fat percentage.
And, much to my surprise, calorie consumption predicted body weight.
So, even if the assumptions behind calories have some clear holes in them, they nonetheless (for this sample size of one extremely skeptical individual) have at least -some- predictive value.
Even if everything you say is true (and, e.g., you weren't recording completely bogus fat percentage numbers, you measured your weight consistently, the internet didn't mislead you on calorie counts, etc. etc.), this gives you extremely weak evidence to expect that other people would benefit from doing the same.
Not that this argument hasn't been tried before.