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RichardKennaway comments on Minimum viable workout routine - Less Wrong
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"calories in calories out" still applies on the paleo diet, technically it applies to everything since it's just a restatement of conservation of energy.
It's just that effective diets typically reduce hunger, causing an automatic/involuntary reduction in calorie intake. Most likely by restoring the proper function of endocrine systems that are supposed to regulate hunger in response to feedback on fat mass (lipostasis).
//edit: before you guys downvote me anymore, please read about how the hypothalamus regulates energy balance and how proper regulation is disrupted in obesity:
Clinical review: Regulation of food intake, energy balance, and body fat mass: implications for the pathogenesis and treatment of obesity. Guyenet SJ, Schwartz MW J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2012 Mar ; 97(3): 745-55
That sort of thing is precisely why conservation of energy does not imply that calorie restriction must be an effective means of weight control. You have to know the causal relationships, not merely the correlations, even when the correlations follow from fundamental physics.
Fun anecdote: there was a period in my life, lasting several years, when I ate -- had to eat -- literally twice as much as I do nowadays (and I only use "literally" to mean "literally", never "hyperbolically"). I only weighed about five pounds more. If you want to imagine where it all went, go right ahead. (Yes, there was something seriously wrong. I got better, thank you.)
Yes, but people confuse "counting calories isn't a good strategy for losing weight" with "effective weight loss must occur by some mechanism that doesn't involve changes in calorie intake and expenditure- such as metabolizing different foods at different efficiencies."
I'm trying to clear up that confusion- calorie balance is critical to understand what's going on physiologically when people lose weight, however it's not very useful to track numerically when actually trying to lose weight.