I'm having a hard time understanding it. You seem to be saying that {T, Monday}, and {T, Tuesday} are either both true or both false before, but mutually exclusive after. If you mean them ever happening, they'd be both true or both false either way. If you mean them happening now, they'd be both false before and mutually exclusive after. Were you talking about the probability that they ever happen before the experiment, and the probability that they're happening now during? If so, you should mark that by calling them something like {T, Monday, Ever} and {T, Monday, Today}. Thus {T, Monday, Ever} and {T, Tuesday, Ever} are either both true or both false, but {T, Monday, Today} and {T, Tuesday, Today} can occur in any combination except both true.
If you wake up the day before the experiment, you eliminate {T, Monday, Today}, {T, Tuesday Today} and {H, Monday, Today}. If you wake up during the experiment, you eliminate {T, Sunday, Today} and {H, Sunday, Today}. This looks like SIA.
Am I missing something?
Haha, a downvote.
Anyhow.
You seem to be saying that {T, Monday}, and {T, Tuesday} are either both true or both false before, but mutually exclusive after.
You've hit one of the points I muddled before :D There are two different questions - "what day will I wake up" vs. "what day is it" basically. But there's an alternative: "what day will I wake (or have woken) up given that I just woke up?" Phrased like this, you can see how Sleeping Beauty's question can be produced by adding information to the question before the exper...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here.